Today is June 1st meaning it’s the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Although you probably already know this hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, meaning summer cruising is not for the faint of heart. The other day the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center came out with their projections. The prognosis, the 2010 hurricane season should be “active to extremely active”, sounds fun.
If you want to get into specifics the NOAA has predicted that we have an 85% chance of experiencing above average hurricane activity. The NOAA compare this hurricane season to the 1995 season a season which produced Hurricane Felix, Luis and Opal category 4 hurricanes whose winds peaked at 140 mph (Opal was the 18th costliest hurricane in US History). The NOAA also makes the statement, if this hurricane season reaches the upper end of their predictions it will be one of the most active hurricane seasons in history.
The NOAA goes on to state there is a 70% probably for each of the following ranges of activity:
- 14-23 Named Storms,
- 8-14 Hurricanes
- 3-7 Major Hurricanes
- An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
Ace stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a scale which accounts for the duration and intensity of named storms during the season. An ACE value of 117% would indicate an above average season with a 175% indication indicating exceptionally active season.
The reason for these higher than normal expectations has to do with a few different atmospheric conditions. The NOAA states that the upper atmospheric winds are more conducive to storm creation than normal coupled with a weakened wind shear and above average sea surface conditions. When you add those things together it’s a cocktail recipe for an exceptionally active hurricane season. If you would like to read the full report on what the 2010 hurricane season might look like you can visit the NOAA website by clicking here.
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Sounds like it’s going to be an active hurricane season… very BAD for gulf coast & midwest residents.. a hurricane could make oil rain over half the nation!