How Bad Will This Hurricane Season Be?

Posted by T.I. Cruiser

June 4, 2009

Although I am no meteorological expert, I am fairly adept at looking up information on the internet, so to answer this question I will defer to the real experts. Thanks to a quick google search I found the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA’s 2009 official hurricane outlook. In layman’s terms the NOAA predicts that this hurricane season will be near normal. They also state that we will most likely see somewhere between 9 and 14 named storms this hurricane season.

What the Experts Say About the 2009 Hurricane Season

In a study released about a week before the start of hurricane season the NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center stated there is about a 70 percent chance that we will see 9 to 14 named storms with 4 to 7 of them become hurricanes. They also go on to say there may be somewhere between 1 and 3 major hurricanes. The NOAA defines major hurricanes as being category 3 or higher with winds in excess of 110 mph.

Now it must be stated that these predictions are just that, predictions. Nothing in life is certain especially when it comes to weather. However, I will say that the NOAA is usually pretty accurate in their predictions. Last year they predicted a 65 percent chance that we would see 12 to 16 named storms with 6 to 9 becoming hurricanes. We ended up having 16 named storms with 8 turning into hurricanes. Conversely they were seriously off base in 2005 when the actual number of storms we saw were double the number which were predicted.

It also needs to be mentioned that over the last decade we have been going through a change in our global climate. I’m not going to get into the whole greenhouse effect/global warming thing but changes in our weather patterns are evident to us all. What this means as far as predictions are concerned is they are getting harder to make every year. SO, your best bet in keeping abreast of the state of the current hurricane season is to proactively see out information.

How to Keep Track of Tropical Storms?

There are many sources for getting up to the minute information regarding hurricanes and tropical storms. The NOAA has a website which provides access to current weather warnings. These warnings include not only hurricane information but also warning for other marine conditions such as severe thunderstorms. In there is also an infrared satellite image of the Caribbean available on the website for those of you who are more visual.

NOAA Weather Warnings

Tropical Prediction Center

Infrared Caribbean Satellite Images

Caribbean Hurricane Network

US National Hurricane Center

I don’t mean to sound like a broken record but cruise lines really are experts in dealing with weather situations. So, when it comes to your individual sailing the best place to gather information is the website of your cruise line. If you are set to take a cruise during hurricane season your search for information needs to start with the cruise line itself.